How To Win At Sports Betting

The laws of probability shows that the gambler cannot win in the long run. The fact that some players do win over the short-term is the result of one thing and that is Lady Luck. Sports betting does not fit this model because it is a game of opinion rather than a game of chance.

People who formulate their own opinions, as opposed to reacting to the opinions of others are labeled Handicappers. A handicapper takes bits of information and digests them, dumps some, keeps others and places different values to the keepers according to his own perception of a Game's Muscle.

Some handicappers are employed by bookmakers, or are bookmakers in which case they are called Oddsmakers. The oddsmaker has the added responsibility of handicapping The Bettors. If the betting public is swayed by sentiment to bet a certain team, the betting line must favor this fact or else the action will be mostly one-sided. From a sportsbook or oddsmaker's standpoint a line is flawed when it fails to split the action. From a handicapper's standpoint a line is flawed when it does not connect with his projected winner against the pointspread. It is than that the handicapper spots an Overlay otherwise known as Value on a game, steps in and makes a bet.

What is an Overlay or Value on a Game

In sports betting an overlay exists when the odds are greater than the probability of winning. Sports handicapping is searching for Edges. If a player has enough edges to overcome the Vig, than he has an overlay.

There are 2 types of overlays, Theoretical and Real. In a Real or otherwise known as a True overlay the bettor has a proven mathematical advantage.

In sports betting overlays are seldom Real, they are Theoretical which means that they evolve from Educated Opinions to Educated Sports Bettors. If Team A is favored by 2- points over Team B and you have the opportunity to bet Team A laying a Pick than you have a Real or True overlay on Team A and the mathematical odds are now in your favor. With smart Money Management you will come out ahead in the long run. But in the Real World your sportsbook is not going to give you or anyone else any Real overlays or mathematical advantages to beat them which brings us to the Theoretical overlay.

Theoretical Overlays

If your going to beat your sportsbook in the long run you must have the Edge or Advantage. You must bet the overlays for the sportsbook to become '' Your Vig and Your Customer.'' How do you get the edge over a sportsbook that already has The edge over you. How do you even know when you have a theoretical overlay? Next is an example of a theoretical overlay.

If Your Theoretical overlay calculations ( your line ) shows True-Risk odds on Team A as a -40 cent favorite and your sportsbook line on Team A is -49 cents or higher, you have your Theoretical overlay, you bet Team B the underdog taking the +39 cents or more. Win - Lose - or - Push over a period of time you'll grind out a profit, if your True-Risk Theoretical odds calculations are correct. Remember your betting your line against theirs, or another way of putting it, You Against the World !

How do you know if your True-Risk Theoretical odds calculations are correct ?

This is what separates the Winners from the Losers in Sports Betting !

Veteran Insider of Sports Betting and Handicapping for 30 years and running.

You don't win handicapping sports for 30 years unless you have an Edge, for Sonny at BET on SPORTS 2 Win.com that edge is Information. Coast to Coast Information channeled from behind the scenes contacts and backed by Sonny's enduring '' Feel for the Game.''

In 1993 Sonny penned The Wise-Guy's Bible, rated 5*Star at Amazon.com and described as a key Book in the classrooms at two major universities, University of Southern California and UNLV in the studies of Sports Handicapping, Sports Betting and Sports Gambling.

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